Thursday, April 2, 2009

When will we see an upturn?

This is what I said on Jan. 1, 2009

So, just for fun, here are my guesses

1) U.S. will be in a recession until 2011
2) Unemployment will hit 10%
3) Stock market? Maybe a bottom around 7500-8000

As for international shipping, I guess 10% of the carriers in existence today will be gone. Probably bought by someone else, but in several instances (especially in bulk and tankers) bankrupt.

The U.S. Stock market went lower than 7500. It has rebounded now, but for how long?

The chairman of Hamburg Sud, Dr. Gast, says we won't hit bottom in container shipping in 2010.

“Even if the economy will come back it will take some time before the balance between supply and demand is in order again,” he said. Anyone forecasting a revival by the end of this year or in 2010 was merely speculating.

He also says

“The worldwide economy is in a situation that we have never had since the Second World War and it is no surprise that the most global industry is suffering so much,” he told Lloyd’s List.

However, he wasn't around in the 1960's (neither was I), when I understand Hamburg Sud almost went belly up. And, things were pretty bad in the U.S. in the 1970's, but most people don't remember that either.

Some people in dry bulk shipping say we have seen the bottom,
THE worst is over for the dry bulk shipping sector according to Asian-based owner and operator Nobu Su, who has rebuilt his fleet to capitalise from any upswing by chartering more than 50 bulk carriers.

But, a lot of the turn around will be based on China. This reminds us that we certainly have a world-wide economy. Especially when it comes to international shipping.

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