New Year's Predictions

I'm not usually one to do predictions, but this year it seems like a good time to "guess".

Back on Oct. 8th, 2008, this is what I said

I expect the stock market will continue to drop. My guess is the Dow will get down below 8500 before it bottoms out. And, I am thinking the recession will go on for 3 years.

Well, we certainly hit the 8500 mark, and even lower.

The economists have now said we have been in a recession for 1 year, so I guess if we go on for 2 more years I will be pretty much on the mark.

So, just for fun, here are my guesses

1) U.S. will be in a recession until 2011
2) Unemployment will hit 10%
3) Stock market? Maybe a bottom around 7500-8000

As for international shipping, I guess 10% of the carriers in existence today will be gone. Probably bought by someone else, but in several instances (especially in bulk and tankers) bankrupt.