Revised Economic Forecast

Here's what I said back on Jan. 1, 2009

1) U.S. will be in a recession until 2011
2) Unemployment will hit 10%
3) Stock market? Maybe a bottom around 7500-8000

As for international shipping, I guess 10% of the carriers in existence today will be gone. Probably bought by someone else, but in several instances (especially in bulk and tankers) bankrupt.

Today that doesn't sound so radical, but back then the experts were saying we would start to recover end of 2009.

Almost 2 months later, the experts are starting to agree with me.

WASHINGTON – Brace yourself: The recession is projected to worsen this year. The country stands to lose a sizable chunk of economic activity in 2009 as consumers at home and abroad retrench in the face of persistent economic troubles. And the U.S. unemployment rate — now at 7.6 percent, the highest in more than 16 years — is expected hit a peak of 9 percent this year.

The Fed said the unemployment rate could stay elevated into 2011. Some analysts think the jobless rate won't drift down to a more normal range of around 5 percent until 2013 — at the earliest.

And we think it's bad in the U.S. Americans are such whiners. China has it much worse.

More about that later.