Thursday, February 19, 2009

Sure, let's call it negative growth

Lots of folks are trying to put a good spin on how bad things are everywhere.

I found it interesting that today the U.S. Fed made an announcement about how inflation will only be about 2% a year.

Are these folks nuts? Even I, a simple minded person living in Wichita, Kansas has figured out we are already in a state of deflation. Just look at the car ads, and the going out of business sales.

An article in American Shipper caught my eye regarding the overcapacity in Chinese ports.

China’s ports could suffer from extreme overcapacity this year and next, according to a new report from AXS-Alphaliner.
The report, China Container Ports Review 2009, suggests that the excess supply of terminal capacity in China's container ports could reach 35 million TEUs by 2010. The ports in the Pearl River Delta and Bohai Bay regions would be especially hard hit, as most major ports in China have expansion plans on the books despite declining demand.
"Both the Bohai Rim and the Pearl River Delta/Southeast coastal region could see a significant overcapacity challenge in 2010 as the excess capacity projected is three times more than the actual growth seen in the 2000-2008 period,” the report said. “With growth slowing considerably for 2009, it is unlikely that demand would grow sufficiently to absorb the excess capacity within the next two years."


No kidding Sherlock. The last line of the article was my favorite.

The reduced volumes and tariff erosion would have an adverse impact on the operators, with many terminals facing the prospect of negative growth.”



Negative growth. Humm.

I guess that's kinda of like what happens when you get old and you get shorter.
Negative growth.

Just so one doesn't have to say they shrunk. "Yes, I am going through a negative growth spurt".

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