Four More Years

That's probably how long before we see a recovery in the containership market, according to Offen, one of the major shipowners in Germany.

CLAUS-Peter Offen, one of Germany’s largest shipowners, expects massive lay-ups of containerships in the next three years.

“About 1m teu is already idle. This number will double in 2009 and triple in 2010,” he said during the 8th annual German ship finance forum in Hamburg.

He estimated that 25% of the worldwide container fleet would be put out of work by the end of 2011.

He expects the overcapacity in container shipping to peak around 2011 as there are a lot of newbuildings due for delivery in the next three years.

From 2012 the market for newbuildings will be completely dried up and overcapacity will decrease.

“Four years from now the charter rates may rise again and another two years later supply and demand may be in balance again,” he said. “In 2014 we could be back in good markets.”