Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Updating my predictions

Well, we are half way through 2009.

Most companies are saying the free fall is over, but when we will see a recovery is certainly up for debate.

My last updated prediction was Jan. 2009.

1) U.S. will be in a recession until 2011
2) Unemployment will hit 10%
3) Stock market? Maybe a bottom around 7500-8000

As for international shipping, I guess 10% of the carriers in existence today will be gone. Probably bought by someone else, but in several instances (especially in bulk and tankers) bankrupt.

So far I am about on target for the unemployment rate and stock market bottom - unless the stock market tanks again.

As for international shipping, we have not yet seen any major bankruptcies. This is mainly because all of the banks, creditors, and owners of chartered vessels are doing everything they can to keep companies in business. The only ones not really playing are the shipyards.

They are starting to accept delays, but only if customers are willing to pay the penalties.

But, things are not looking up, and I think the next 6 months will put the squeeze on a lot of carriers.

This from Lloyd's List

Box lines face fight of their lives as ocean rates fall back to zero

Janet Porter - Tuesday 9 June 2009

CONTAINER lines have just four weeks to reverse the slide in Asia-Europe freight rates or risk going out of business.

click here for link to article

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