Sunday, October 11, 2009

How long is this downturn?

There has been quite a bit in the news the last week about the downturn. Container carriers in the Pacific to U.S. trade are already looking for an $800 per FEU increase for next year.

Everyone realizes it is really bad. I don't think too many thought it would be this bad for this long.

Except me, of course.

The shipyards are having trouble accepting the idea of cancellations.

But, they need to realize this is what it has come to.

Many of the European yards are already folding. The Asian yards will have to start marking concessions, or end up with ships bought by bankrupt companies.

The "peak season" is over. At least for container carriers.

The next 6 months will be very interesting.

Although, as I have said before, we have probably hit bottom. But, there won't be a big upturn to the "boom boom" of the last decade.

It's going to be a bit bloody.


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