Monday, July 20, 2009

TSA should be closed down

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.

The carriers which are members of the TSA (Transpacific Stabilization Agreement) should disband, close down, the TSA.

It's not just because the TSA has outlived it's usefulness. It's also because the carriers need to be looking at every dime they spend. And, this organization costs money to run. Probably quite a lot.

NOL/APL has today stated they can't get the rate increases announced by the group.
So, that means the drive for the rate increase has fallen apart.

From Lloyd's List (click here for link)

HOPES that freight rates for containerised cargo had stabilised appear to have been dashed after Neptune Orient Lines disclosed another considerable lurch downwards.

The latest decline reflects both cheaper core rates and lower bunker recovery.
In the year to date, average revenue per feu has fallen 20% to $2,375 compared with $2,972 in the corresponding period of 2008, while cargo volumes were 24% less at 970,600 feu.

I'll stand by my previous forecast of a decline of 20 percent for 2009 vs 2008.
I don't know why everyone thinks this is so outrageous. Considering there have been 10% increases every year for about the past 5, this only erases 2 years of gains.

And, I think it will probably stay at that level for 2010 also.

The only good news for the carriers is the price of oil is coming down. But, if they really hold to their "bunker adjustment factors" that would mean they will be giving bunker credits.

I would not want to be an owner in an international shipping company right now.

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