Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Oil analysts predictions

I think I will declare myself to be an oil analyst. Surely, I can do as good of job as these folks.

In June I said oil would drop down to $55.00 a barrel by Oct., 2009, and possibly as soon as Aug. 2009.

This morning I read 2 different reports (actually 3, as Morgan Stanley has 2 different scenarios).

All of these from Bloomberg News

1) Morgan Stanley - headline reads "Morgan Stanley Raises 2010 Oil Forecast to $85"

Perhaps it was in the "updated 2" someone realized this was old news, or, I don't know what. Anyway, later in the article it says.

Crude may average $50 a barrel in the second half and $55 next year in a “bear” case scenario, and reach $90 a barrel in the second half of 2009 and $100 in 2010 if the global economy recovers rapidly, the report said.

So, somewhere between $50 and $100 a barrel. That certainly narrows it down.

click here for link

2) July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York may fall below $45 a barrel by the end of August as the global recession stalls a recovery in fuel consumption in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy user, BNP Paribas said.

click here for link

There will be more forecasts tomorrow, as official reports giving usage and supply will be released today and tomorrow.

We shall wait and see.

My guess is it's going down.

Which means the bunker adjustment factors should be going down as well.

Actually, some of them should already be negative, based on the original assumptions of oil prices.

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