Forecast Container Shipping

Sometimes I amaze myself. I am just now catching up on what is going on
in the world of container shipping, and in particular, the forecast
for this year.

This is what I wrote in my blog post of July 23, 2010

Ocean container space is tight coming out of Asia, as the carriers had been smart enough to not add too much capacity. This will last another year, then all the carriers will have short term memory loss, and add too much capacity.

Some things never change.

Like the weather. It's summertime in the U.S., and yet some people are shocked to see the temps in the triple digits

.

And now, this article from the Journal of Commerce today, one year later

Alphaliner says growth through 2012 will become “more alarming” with 2013 orders

Four hundred and forty-eight container ships with a combined capacity of 2.78 million 20-foot equivalent units are scheduled for delivery in 2011 and 2012, adding enormous capacity well ahead of growth in demand, according to market analysts Alphaliner.

“The market fundamentals are looking less favorable compared to last year, as an overhang of surplus capacity will continue to plague the industry,” the container industry analysts said.

Deliveries will total 213 ships of 1.34 million TEUs in 2011, and 235 vessels of 1.44 million TEUs in 2012, equating to annual fleet growth of 8.7 percent in each year, Alphaliner said in a report on ship orders.

“More alarming,” the firm said, is the large capacity scheduled for delivery in 2013, which so far has reached a record high of 1.73 million TEUs compared with the previous record of 1.57 million TEUs delivered in 2008.

The figure could rise even higher in the new few months as some yards continue to offer container building slots for 2013 deliveries.

“Most carriers continue to pile up new vessel orders and the order wave does not appear to be coming to an end any time soon,” according to Alphaliner.

Carriers already are bracing for a weak peak season this year as demand growth has slowed since the third quarter of 2010 while the supply of ships has surged over the same period due to the delivery of new-built vessels and the re-activation of idle tonnage.

Yes, and people are surprised it is 105 degrees today in Kansas.